Legislative session to focus on Helene relief, budget and education

Republican lawmakers may be feeling a bit of déjà vu. As they head into the new legislative session on Wednesday, they are one seat shy of a veto-proof supermajority with a Democratic governor more than ready to use his pen.

The same was true in 2023, until state Rep. Tricia Cotham of Mecklenburg switched parties — from Democrat to Republican — giving the GOP caucus the numbers they needed to pass their priorities into law.

While it’s unlikely that will happen this session, legislative leaders on both sides of the aisle are planning to keep close eyes on their swingiest members — and attendance — this year.

At stake is the 2026-27 biennial budget, natural disaster relief and a number of other priorities.

This legislative session will be defined by North Carolina’s divided government, which includes a Democratic governor, a Republican legislature and a Council of State divided equally along party lines, High Point University political science professor Martin Kifer said.

“That creates a situation where, even if it’s not the closest or most collegial collaboration, you do have a situation where it’s likely that we’ll have Democrats and Republicans cooperating on issues in order to make sure that something can get passed,” he said.

It’s difficult to predict what lawmakers may have on their minds, and new leaders on both sides complicate any conjectures.

But there are a few issues where political science experts anticipate action, like natural disaster relief, education and trickle-down impacts of the second Trump administration.

Lawmakers will likely move in and out of the legislative session all year long, Catawba College political science professor Michael Bitzer explained. Typically, they work until early summer, then take a break before returning in the fall, he added, but it depends on the specific priorities and how quickly they move through various committees.

While specific deadlines haven’t been set by leadership, legislators must consider the “crossover” deadline, which is typically sometime in late April or early May — the date by which bills must have gotten through at least one chamber.

However, with legislative shortcuts like “gut and replace,” where the substance of one bill further along in the process is removed and replaced with new text, nothing is ever completely dead.

“I would take everything with a grain of salt until the actual bill appears on the floor of either chamber, and even there, things could happen,” Bitzer said.

Hurricane Helene relief

Chris Cooper, a political science professor at Western Carolina University, feels that if there’s any place Democrats and Republicans can come together this session, it’s on Hurricane Helene recovery.

In the last half of 2024, the General Assembly passed three Helene relief packages, totalling $1.1 billion in spending. But full recovery may cost an estimated $60 billion, according to the state budget office.

Paying the bill will require contributions from the federal government, which has already tossed in a few billion dollars from its $100 billion disaster relief bill to North Carolina, as well as the state.

Debris lines the street in downtown Waynesville in front of shops that would normally be busy with tourists during the fall, following the devastation of Tropical Storm Helene in late September 2024. Provided

Cooper said it’s probable that legislators will have to dip into the state’s “Rainy Day Fund” to cover their share.

Meanwhile, top Republican lawmakers have stressed the need to refill that fund in anticipation of future disasters. An emphasis on savings in one area could result in stricter budgeting in other places.

Lawmakers don’t necessarily have to wait to pass a full budget before addressing Helene recovery, Bitzer explained. They may pass relief bills separately, moving money more quickly than the normal appropriations process.

The budget

On paper, odd-numbered years are budget years in North Carolina. The governor presents a proposal. Each chamber of the legislature offers their own. And by the end of the fiscal year in June, the next two-year budget is ready to go.

Even-numbered years are intended for small adjustments that respond to unexpected changes.

At least that’s the way things are supposed to be.

In reality, both years have become important budget years, Cooper said. The legislature doesn’t necessarily abide by any deadline, and can opt to not pass a full biennial budget in favor of creating smaller, mini budgets to keep the government moving throughout the next two years.

“It’s a bit of a wild west,” Cooper said. “They haven’t passed a budget before July 1 in I don’t know how long, so the norm now is to kick it to the fall.”

Much of the budget contains something called “particularistic spending” — or money going to specific places.

“You can improve a district real fast, and you can also guarantee your reelection with just a few relatively small investments in a particular place,” Cooper said.

In addition to hurricane relief, the budget may include a focus on education spending and infrastructure to address the state’s growth.

Education

Recently, Republicans have prioritized private school vouchers and charter schools over Democratic opposition.

Cooper expects that trend will continue in this legislative session.

“They’ve made big movements, but I would still expect to see perhaps some more there,” he said. “So what does ‘more’ look like? I think it just looks like more of it: more students, more schools, more funding, more priority on non-traditional public schools.”

Maurice “Mo” Green, the new superintendent of public instruction, is a Democrat. So he may not be quite as agreeable to Republican approaches, Kifer thinks. But he doubts that will deter conversations around school choice.

Other education priorities may include addressing teacher compensation as well as ways to boost recruitment and retention.

Trump trickle-down policies

What happens in Washington, D.C., does not stay in D.C.

As President Donald Trump enters his second term in office and makes his policy priorities known, Republican state legislatures are likely to follow his lead.

In an era of nationalized politics, Cooper said that might mean more conversations about immigration and the border.

Kifer added that whatever actions Trump takes in the health care space, particularly any changes he makes to the Affordable Care Act, may have downstream effects on the state that lawmakers will have to address.

“Anything and everything is open for any kind of consideration,” Bitzer echoed.

New legislative session, old bills

Other than Helene relief, Cooper doesn’t anticipate many “brand new” topics this session.

“I don’t know that there’s going to be any programmatic, big-picture pushes that we haven’t seen the last few cycles already.”

However, there may be a revival of some past legislation that didn’t quite make it across the finish line.

For one, the perennial push to legalize medical marijuana will likely be a part of the conversation. Every legislative session since 2009 has seen a bill filed. But only a 2022 attempt gained steam.

Another potential blast from the past is an effort to add casinos in select counties. Strong, divided opinions on gambling held up the last biennial budget, and it could happen again.

However, with new leadership that may have different interests, it’s unclear whether adding casinos will have the same priority level.

“That’s the one policy issue that makes for strange bedfellows,” Cooper said. “You get some establishment Republicans that are for, you get some Democrats that are for, and then you get some more socially conservative Republicans that are against.”

Tax reform and election legislation are also likely to come up at some point, but in what form is unclear, according to Bitzer.

Republicans tend to want to drive tax rates lower. Last legislative session, they attempted to pass a constitutional amendment capping North Carolina’s future income tax at 5%. The GOP could make another attempt.

Election legislation could depend on what happens in court with Republicans’ attempt to shift election board appointment power from Democratic Gov. Josh Stein to Republican State Auditor Dave Boliek. If courts rule against GOP legislators, they may make a different attempt to consolidate election power.

Election directors want more funding for staffing after last session’s Senate Bill 382 shortened deadlines for counting absentee and provisional ballots.

It’s unclear if they’ll get it.

“I doubt that we do a lot of extra funding there for elections, but we’ll see if the Republicans win in court, and if the state auditor is in charge, maybe they’ll change their tune on election funding,” Cooper said.

Not on the legislative session table?

One of former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper’s top priorities was expanding Medicaid. He was able to do so in 2023 through a compromise with the legislature. The move allowed an estimated 600,000 additional low-income North Carolinians to access health insurance coverage.

“Once the Republican leadership got in line together behind Medicaid expansion, I think that was the end of that conversation, but I don’t see them trying to limit it anymore,” Western Carolina’s Chris Cooper explained. “They felt like it was financially a smart move. That’s why they flipped. And I don’t see them flipping back.”

A People's Rally — A variety of social concern groups hosted “A People’s Rally” at the state Capitol in March 2023. The rally focused on concerns over voters’ rights and redistricting as well as a number of other talking points ranging from abortion to race relations. Melissa Sue Gerrits / Carolina Public Press

Another topic that Republicans may be satisfied with is abortion. After Roe v. Wade was overturned, the legislature shortened the legal window to get an abortion from 20 to 12 weeks.

It took work to make that happen, and it came at a political cost to some, Cooper explained. So Republicans may be content with the movement they’ve made.

“There’s certainly members of the House Republican caucus who want to restrict abortion even further,” Cooper added. “There’s no question that they’re there. The question is how much power do they get in that chamber?”